Covid-19 spreading outbreak - Italy

(joint work: Leonardo Egidi, Nicola Torelli, UniTs)

1. PREVISIONI AD UN MESE

     Ospedalizzati

   

 

                                                                                                        Legenda: 

                                                                                                           - valori osservati

                                                                                                           - stime modello

                                                                                                           - previsioni 

     Terapie Intensive

                                                                                                        Legenda: 

                                                                                                           - valori osservati

                                                                                                           - stime modello

                                                                                                           - previsioni 

2. PREVISIONI 23 APRILE

Riportiamo qui le tabelle predittive per il 23 Aprile per numero di ospedalizzati e terapie intensive (ICU). Le previsioni hanno un valore centrale (Prediction, colonna gialla), un estremo inferiore (Lower) e un estremo superiore (Upper). Riportiamo anche il valore osservato e quello previsto del giorno precedente (22 Aprile). 

Alle ore 18 di ogni giorno riceviamo il dato vero della Protezione Civile e vediamo come si comporta il modello.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

3. METODOLOGIA E REPORT

 

Here you find complete reports and tables related to the regional statistical analysis of the Italian pandemic trend, starting from March, 30th. Specifically:

- Data (see here)

- Data manipulations

- Statistical analysis

- Models

- Plots

- Tentative predictions

- Reproducible R code

Methodological note: Bayesian and classical hierarchical Poisson regression for the total hospitalized people and the intensive care units (ICU) in each region, with covariate accounting for times, lockdown measures,  medical swabs and regional membership. Softwares used: R 3.6.3, Stan 

Click on the day below to download: (1) complete html report (2) excel tables of 4-forward days predictions for total hospitalized and ICU (95% predictive intervals, upper and lower bound in parentheses). To ease the tables reading, you find them also in the section of the final report.

Check this webpage every early morning for the new results.

Days

- 30 March (html report; excel tables)

- 31 March  (html report; excel tables)

- 1 April (html report; excel tables)

- 2 April (html report; excel tables)

- 3 April (htlm report; excel tables)

- 4 April (html report; excel tables)

- 5 April (html report; excel tables)

- 6 April (html report: excel tables)

- 7 April (html report; excel tables)

- 8 April (html report; excel tables)

- 9 April (html report; excel tables)

- 10 April (html reportexcel tables)

- 14 April (html report; excel tables)

- 15 April (html report; excel tables)

- 16 April (html report; excel tables)

- 17 April (html report; excel tables)

- 18 April (html report; excel tables)

- 21 April (html report; excel tables)

- 22 April (html report; excel tables)

- 23 April (html report; excel tables)

 

 

University of Trieste - DEAMS

© 2017 by Leonardo Egidi. Proudly created with Wix.com

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